Hopeful, But Not Optimistic About Obi Toppin

I don’t want to be a negative Nancy, but I just want people to realize why I have concerns about the Knicks latest lottery pick, Obi Toppin. First, let me get the good out of the way:

I love that Toppin gave out turkeys to people in need in his Brooklyn neighborhood.

I love that he actually wants to play for the Knicks like RJ Barrett. (How many players today actually feel that way?)

I love that he can score easily around the basket, midrange, and from behind the arc. (And although his 70% FT% last season wasn’t great — it still would’ve been third-best on the Knicks last year.) Dude should put up 25 points on a regular basis (but will he also allow his opponent to score 30 points on him?)

“He’s the Naismith winner, the Associated Press Player of the Year winner, the Wooden Award winner! Why are you being so negative?”

Congratulations to him, but that is not a predictor of future NBA success.

Here are some other recent winners of those awards:

• Shane Battier
• Andrew Bogut
• T.J. Ford
• Jameer Nelson
• Tyler Hansbrough
• Evan Turner
• Jimmer Fredette
• Trey Burke
• Doug McDermott
• Frank Kaminsky
• Buddy Hield
• Frank Mason III
• Jalen Brunson

Not exactly huge NBA difference-makers.

Not to mention Toppin won that award playing for the University of Dayton in a weak Atlantic 10 conference where he played against schools like St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have an undergraduate enrollment of 1,850 students which is barely more than the number of students my Division 3 alma mater, Drew University, has in a good year. The conference has 1 Final Four appearance in its 45-year history and was 10th among Division 1 basketball conferences in strength-of-schedule and SRS. That’s behind the Missouri Valley Conference and Mountain West Conference. So let’s not pretend like the Atlantic 10 is a hotbed for NBA talent.

In fact, here are the most recent draft picks from the Atlantic 10 conference:

2001: Maurice Jeffers

2002: Rasual Butler

2004: Delonte West

2004: Jameer Nelson

2006: J.R. Pinnock

2007: Stephane Lasme

2009: Eric Maynor

2009: Steph Curry

2010: Larry Sanders

2011: Justin Harper

2012: Andrew Nicholson

2015: Cady Lalanne

2016: DeAndre’ Bembry

2018: Kostas Antetokounmpo

2019: Eric Paschall

Outside of Steph Curry — there is only 1 All-Star appearance from the other 15 guys on this list (Jameer Nelson.)

“But he’s the most NBA ready player at age 22.”

Call me an ageist if you will — but the history of 22-year-old NBA lottery picks just isn’t good. Here are the names of players over the age of 22 who were lottery picks (since 2004):

• Tyler Hansbrough
• Frank Kaminsky
• Jimmer Fredette
• Shelden Williams
• Thabo Sefolosha
• Channing Frye
• Denzel Valentine
• Wesley Johnson
• Ekpe Udoh
• Acie Law
• Brandon Rush
• Kelly Olynyk
• Babby Araujo
• Fran Vasquez
• Luke Jackson
• Kris Dunn
• Taurean Prince
• Joakim Noah
• Hasheem Thabeet
• JJ Redick

Joakim Noah and JJ Redick carved out decent roles for themselves — but again — these aren’t NBA difference-makers. Only two All-Star game appearances among these 20 guys and they’re both from Noah.

And that brings me to my biggest frustration: fit & coaching. The Knicks hired Tom Thibodeau to a 5-year contract. Ask anyone who follows the NBA what the first word you think of when you hear the name ‘Tom Thibodeau’ and they’ll undoubtedly say ‘defense.’ Ask those same people what they think Toppin’s biggest weakness is entering the NBA and they’ll repeat: ‘defense.’ But it isn’t just an effort and coaching problem with Toppin’s defense. Here are just a few of the things Spencer Pearlman, formerly of the Phoenix Suns scouting staff, had to say in his scouting report about Toppin:

• Defensive Role: “PF defender, but probably a below-average defender overall. His stiff hips/slow feet limit his perimeter defense and interior awareness is not good, so projection as a good rim protector is unlikely.”
• “It looks like he complains about his teammates’ poor defensive positioning (blaming them for giving up points) from the amount of times he throws his hands up, looks around at his teammates, etc — does not take responsibility for his own misgivings on defense. It looks like he could also be complaining to the refs on some occasions instead of staying involved in the play.”
• Off Ball Defense: “Not someone you want chasing around screens. Too upright in his movements, can lose his man off-ball, and is not quick to the shot contest on the perimeter. In addition, he’s not disciplined. Movement bigs will be able to take advantage of Toppin’s poor defense.”
• Man Defense: “Does not have a good defensive stance — upper back rounded, hands down, feet too close together, too far upright, etc. Tends to take long steps on the perimeter which goes back to his need to improve balance and his awkward coordination with his lower body movements.”
• There’s a lot more in this same vein — but I’d recommend reading Pearlman’s entire article here: https://www.thestepien.com/2020/02/19/obi-toppin-scouting-report/

“Well, Thibs will just have to get him to figure out how to play defense.”

But here’s my biggest issue — Thibs shouldn’t have to teach the basic fundamentals of defense. The Knicks could’ve drafted Tyrese Haliburton to run their offense and he doesn’t need special hand-holding or defensive scheming to hide his deficiencies. (Plus we wouldn’t need to resign Elfrid Payton!) Or they could have drafted Devin Vassell who was one of the top defensive prospects in the draft and can space the floor by being a deep threat which will help out RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson offensively. My biggest worry is that the front office drafting Obi Toppin is a signal that they didn’t even talk to coach Thibodeau or learn what his needs/wants are for his system. Because I feel fairly certain he would’ve asked them todraft Haliburton or Vassell. And it is not good news if an NBA front office isn’t in lock-step with their head coach’s needs & schemes.

Literally, two hours before the draft I was texting my friends how I was going to give this entirely new front office two years of optimism. It only took one pick to make me lose that optimism. I will admit that I did like their pick of Immanuel Quickley (although I think he could’ve been drafted later.) And I have liked their free-agent moves and trades to slowly position themselves for an improved future — so I’m not completely out on the Knicks just yet. It seems like they’re taking the long, slow approach to building this team instead of pretending to be competitive by signing the biggest names and trading their entire young core for a past-their-prime, expensive players like Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul. But that’s just another reason why drafting Obi Toppin has me scratching my head — he’s a win-now player on a team that isn’t going to win now.

If Toppin only had to overcome his age, or his weak conference, or his glaring defensive liabilities — I might be more optimistic about him as a player. But overcoming all three is another story. As a huge Knick fan, I’m hopeful he can be the exception to these issues — but I’m not optimistic.